Guru's Golden Picks: CFL Experiment Week 1

[AFLGuru]

Alright, I'll be honest with you all... This is a completely new thing for me, and I'm asking you all to tread very very lightly... But there is a lot of comparison in the talent level between the AFL and CFL, and I think I can use this to my advantage with the bit of watching I've done of the CFL. Tonight, I'm going to ride with the underdogs TigerCats, who return the vast majority of their starters from last year's 9-8-1 campaign. Travelling to Montreal is always tough, as the Alouttes don't lose at home very often. But with Montreal missing 2 of its 3 big play receivers in the lineup today, I like the veteran leadership of Danny McManus to keep the Tigercats in this one every step of the way.

Hamilton (+12) (3 units -104)

I'm only going to experiment with this for a few weeks... if it's working, great... if not, I'll move on to something else in life. Best of luck.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[HPark1]

Don't have an opinion on the game but I will say you should not put your trust in D. McManus. This guy is over the hill. He has the mobility of Dan Marino. In the CFL that is not good, you must have a agile guy to at least scramble if not take off now and again. The main downfall of this guy is his uncanny ability to throw interceptions. Its quite remarkable.

There was actually a slight battle for the #1 job this camp with M. Brady but Brady suffered an injury so the decision was taken care of.

 

[AFLGuru]

As I said, it's a big experiment for me... I'm not gambling nearly as much as I did in the AFL until I get a feel for this. My hope here is to learn some things without losing my shirt.

I do know about CFL QBs and mobility, and for that I can't wait to see Mike Bishop play for Toronto... this should be interesting. But the thing you must say about McManus is the fact that he's been here plenty of times before and shouldn't get rattled by playing in front of Montreal for their opener. Giving it a shot anyway... best of luck to all.

 

[HPark1]

Just warning you in advance if late in the game down a TD McManus throws a pick and its run back the other way! lol.

Bishop will get little playing time if Allen remains healthy. I'm surprised both Bishop and Toronto allow this relationship to continue. He had a mini stretch of a couple games last year when he stepped in and looked good but you can see in the long run this guy can't get it done...anywhere. Consistent poor decision making. Has the physical tools to always tease teams.

 

[AFLGuru]

It's the same thing in the AFL with Bishop. Just makes some real poor decisions... You'd figure they'd let Bishop just run all over the place with all of the open space available in the CFL. Hell, I know if I had a CFL team and Mike Bishop, I'd constantly spread the field and have everyone run fly patterns. No one's outrunning Bishop's arm, and it eliminates several defenders from the play if Bishop chooses to run... Seems AWFULLY difficult to stop with the setup in the Canadian League.You all have a much better grasp on this league than I do, and I suggest reading one of their threads before mine... use mine for fade material if necessary... lol

 

[AFLGuru]

Hamilton not capitalizing when they get deep into Alouette territory... Montreal's lone trip down into TigerCat territory they scored a TD... 7-7 with about 6:00 left in the 1st half

 

[AFLGuru]

11-7 Alouettes at the half

 

[scottw]

MON settling for a lot of FG attempts instead of getting TDs. Killing my over. Oh well, it's only game 1.

 

[AFLGuru]

Yeah, looks like we're both starting the same way after Hamilton turned it over on downs and Montreal turned it into a TD... now Suter's hurt for the Ti-Cats... great...

 

[AFLGuru]

Now Landry takes one back deep into Tiger-Cat territory.... long way to go in this one, but it doesn't seem to be getting any better for the Tiger-Cats any time soon... This'll be a 21 point game in a few plays

 

[scottw]

Getting interesting now. 28-14 end of 3.

 

[AFLGuru]

Alright, not a terrible start even though I feel awfully fortunate that I got a bit of a backdoor cover...

Hamilton (+12) W (+3 units)

YTD: (1-0) +3 units

 

[AFLGuru]

Edmonton vs. Ottawa under 56 (1.5 units -102): No one knows who's starting at quarterback for Edmonton tonight... and if it's the injured Ricky Ray, probably all the better. Ottawa's defense wasn't exactly stellar last year, averaging giving up a shade over 28 points per game, but have introduced Greg Marshall to help with the defensive game plan (a name that has floated around in some AFL camps as well as a defensive coordinator, though I'm not sure if he actually landed a job anywhere for any extended period of time... I know he was on Pat Sperdueto's staff in Nashville in their inagural year). Meanwhile, Edmonton had a defense last year that held teams under 2.5 offensive TDs a game, and the hope here is that the defenses show up once again. Lots of new players on both squads will hopefully cause some offensive struggles in the games' beginning... and since the talent level is very similar to the AFL, my hope is that the same results come to fruition tonight when two teams with a bunch of new faces in both their coaching staffs and players on both sides of the ball take to the field for the first time in '05. Maybe the Renegades can break that dastardly streak of getting crushed in Edmonton tonight as well, as I give them a bit of a better shot than the 12 points suggests... That being said, two more tiny plays...

Ottawa (ml) @ Edmonton (0.5 units +427)
Edmonton vs. Ottawa under 28 1st half (1 unit -104)

 

[scottw]

This was a hard game to call. I took EDM -5 and SAS -2.5 in a 2 team teaser. I will be watching the OTT-EDM game on DIRECTV. Lean to the under 56 tonight as well.

 

[AFLGuru]

Probably be home for the start of the 2nd half tonight, as I work from 6 to approximately 10:30... but I probably won't have any pickup of the game unless I can find online radio anyway... We'll see how it turns out.

 

[scottw]

Here ya go:

OTT: www.team1200.com/listen-live/index.asp#

MON: www.cjad.com/

WIN: www.cjob.com/

EDM: www.630ched.com/

HAM: www.900chml.com/

CAL: www.am770chqr.com/home/index/cfm

TOR: www.mojoradio.com/

BC: www.team1040.ca/listenlive.php

SAS: www.saskriders.com look for a "listen live" link on the page.

 

[AFLGuru]

Excellent! Thanks Scott

 

[scottw]

Glad I could help oat, eh?

 

[MarkieMark+]

AFLGuru, I am Canadian living about halfway between Hamilton and Toronto. I have been an avid CFL fan for years. Edmonton's Commonwealth Stadium is probably the toughest place for a visiting team to get a win in this league. The Eskies should win regardless of who is at QB as they currently have an embarassment of riches at this position.

Ottawa's strengths are their QB, Kerry Jones and running back Josh Ranek. Ranek had some very good games last year for Ottawa, as did Jones but the newly formed Ottawa offensive line will probably not be up to the task of keeping the Edmonton defenders out of their backfield. Jones has great scrambling ability but it won't be enough. The line does seem a little high though, so OTTAWA +12 would be a good bet, in my opinion.

Good Luck
MM

 

[AFLGuru]

Hey Mark... shoot me an email through one of the mods...